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Regional Transmission Expansion Plan Massachusetts Electric Restructuring Roundtable October 28, 2004

Regional Transmission Expansion Plan Massachusetts Electric Restructuring Roundtable October 28, 2004. Jimmy Cross Vice President – System Planning ISO New England. About ISO New England.
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Regional Transmission Expansion PlanMassachusetts Electric Restructuring RoundtableOctober 28, 2004Jimmy CrossVice President – System PlanningISO New EnglandAbout ISO New England
  • Private, not-for-profit corporation created in 1997 to oversee New England’s deregulated electric power system
  • Regulated by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC)
  • Independent of companies doing business in the market
  • Independent board of directors, with no financial stake in regional energy firms
  • Approximately 400 employees headquartered in Holyoke, MA
  • Planning Process
  • ISO Role in Restructured Electric Industry
  • Provide ‘independent’ assessment of bulk power system needs
  • FERC granted ISO sole authority to lead planning effort (2000)
  • Stakeholder input from Transmission Expansion Advisory Committee
  • Regional Transmission Expansion Plan for 2004
  • The most comprehensive planning effort to date to ensure system reliability and promote market efficiency
  • RTEP04 constitutes a regional ‘system’ plan
  • Objectives
  • Identify system needs
  • Provide information to the marketplace to attract generation, merchant transmission, and demand-response solutions
  • Identify regulated transmission solutions as a backstop for reliability
  • Planning ProcessNewGenerationRetirements/DeactivationsPlanningisOngoingLoadForecastTransmissionProjectsDemand Response ProgramDemand-Side ManagementReliability Concern in “Load Pockets”
  • Areas with limited import capability and local generation
  • Southwest Connecticut
  • Connecticut
  • Boston
  • Northwest Vermont
  • Timely completion of 345 kV transmission upgrades to these areas is essential to address reliability concerns and to allow needed development of new resources.
  • Even with new 345 kV transmission, only a limited time for re-powering or developing new resources will exist.
  • Market incentives are needed to promote development of new resources.
  • System-Wide Resource Reliability
  • Present capacity ‘surplus’ will be short-lived.
  • New England supply outlook shifts from tight to deficit conditions in two to four years.
  • Some generation units needed for system reliability are “at risk.”
  • Potential retirements/deactivations include units in critical load pockets.
  • System-Wide Resource Reliability, cont.
  • New England is heavily dependent on gas-fired generation.
  • The 9,500 MW of capacity added since 1999 is largely gas-fired.
  • Approx. 11,500 MW of capacity is now capable of burning gas as a primary fuel.
  • Poses major concerns for unit availability during winter periods.
  • Region is vulnerable to price fluctuation, delivery constraints and competing demands for natural gas.
  • Cold Snap initiatives are underway to improve unit availability, and thus system reliability, during winter season.
  • 35,00030,00025,00020,000Summer Megawatts15,00010,0005,000-2004200520062007200820092010201120122013Net Generating Capacity90/10 Load + Operating Reserves50/50 Load + Operating ReservesNew England’s Capacity SituationToday’s surplus capacity situation will be short-livedTransmission Projects
  • Progress in Several Areas Since RTEP03
  • Projects placed in service since RTEP03: 25
  • Total New RTEP04 projects: 39
  • Total RTEP04 projects needed for reliability: 246
  • Major 345 kV Projects (Estimated costs)
  • Southwest Connecticut Reliability Project ($890M) *
  • Southern New England Reinforcement Project ($125M)
  • NSTAR 345kV Transmission Reliability Project ($217M)
  • Northwest Vermont Reliability Project ($156.3M)
  • Northeast Reliability Interconnect Project ($90.4M)
  • Subtotal: approximately $1.5 billion
  • Remaining RTEP04 Projects: approximately $0.6 billion
  • 2004 Transmission System Project Plan Grand Total: $2.1 billion
  • * Additional equipment or expense may be required for underground design.Market Information
  • New England needs a capacity market that appropriately values the location of resources.
  • RTEP04 provides historical market information and economic assessments of the system in the future.
  • Congestion component of energy pricing has been low.
  • Conclusions
  • Reliability is at risk in Southwestern Connecticut, the State of Connecticut, Northwest Vermont and Boston.
  • Problems in these areas could adversely impact the regional bulk power system.
  • Resource reliability could become a major system-wide issue for New England in two to four years.
  • Timely completion of transmission projects is critical.
  • Delays exacerbate reliability problems.
  • Implementation of actions identified in RTEP04 and enhancements to the market design are needed to address New England’s reliability concerns.
  • Questions?Backup material12,00010,0008,000Summer Megawatts6,000Emergency ActionsSouthern New England Reinforcement4,000Project CT Import Increase (900 MW)Current Import Limit (2,200 MW)Net Generating Capacity2,00090/10 Peak Load + Reserves (Largest Unit)50/50 Peak Load + Reserves (Largest Unit)-NOTE: Transmission project in-service dates are subject to delay2004200520062007200820092010201120122013Connecticut Capacity Situation6,0005,0004,000Summer Megawatts3,000Emergency ActionsSWCT Reliability Project Phase II - Import Limit Increase (850 MW)2,000SWCT Reliability Project Phase I - Import Limit Increase (550 MW)Current Import Limit (2,000 MW)1,000Net Generating Capacity90/10 Peak Load + Reserves (Largest Unit)50/50 Peak Load + Reserves (Largest Unit)-NOTE: Transmission project in-service dates are subject to delay2004200520062007200820092010201120122013Southwest Connecticut Capacity SituationNew HavenBridgeportStamfordMilfordNorwalkPost-Contingency ViolationsCurrent System Thermal Overloads
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